Search results
Found 12223 matches for
The Nuffield Department of Surgical Sciences is the academic department of surgery at the University of Oxford, and hosts a multidisciplinary team of senior clinical academic surgeons, senior scientists, junior clinicians and scientists in training.
Early and ultra-early surgical decompression for acute spinal cord injury: bracing for the winds of change.
PURPOSE: Until recently, there has been no consensus on the optimal operative window for decompressive surgery in acute spinal cord injury (aSCI). However, recent evidence is now supporting a role for early intervention in improving outcomes in this type of patients. The purpose of this letter is to discuss the implications for clinical practice within the European community. METHODS: Critical appraisal and interpretation of these results for clinical implementation. RESULTS: Leveraging on the evidence that early (
Safety of Endoscopic Transsphenoidal Pituitary Surgery during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Comparison to the Pre-Pandemic Era.
Objective The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to the surgical care of patients with pituitary tumors. Guidance issued early during the pandemic suggested avoiding transnasal approaches to minimize risks of transmitting COVID-19 to health care professionals involved in these procedures. Methods This observational, single-center study compares results of endoscopic transsphenoidal approach (TSA) for pituitary tumors since the start of the pandemic to a pre-pandemic period. Anesthetic time, surgical time, and complication rates were compared. Newly acquired COVID-19 infections and transmission rates to patients and staff were reviewed. Data were analyzed by using the independent t -test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Pearson Chi-square test, significance set at p <0.05. Results Over a 12-month period, a total of 50 and 69 patients underwent endoscopic TSA for pituitary tumor during and before the pandemic, respectively. All patients tested negative for COVID-19 preoperatively. Median duration of anesthesia was 35 minutes (interquartile range [IQR]: 22) during the pandemic and 25 minutes (IQR: 8, p = 0.0002) pre-pandemic. Median duration of surgery was 70 minutes (IQR: 28) during the pandemic and 79 minutes (IQR: 33.75, p = 0.126) pre-pandemic. There were no statistically significant differences between intraoperative CSF leaks and complication rates. No staff members tested positive for COVID-19. Three patients tested positive for COVID-19 postdischarge, but the infections were community acquired. Conclusion In contrast to published guidelines, adequate preoperative testing, a multidisciplinary approach and the implementation of standardized protocols and vaccination against COVID-19 allow for endoscopic transsphenoidal surgery to be performed safely in patients with pituitary pathology during the pandemic.
Critical care usage after major gastrointestinal and liver surgery: a prospective, multicentre observational study.
BACKGROUND: Patient selection for critical care admission must balance patient safety with optimal resource allocation. This study aimed to determine the relationship between critical care admission, and postoperative mortality after abdominal surgery. METHODS: This prespecified secondary analysis of a multicentre, prospective, observational study included consecutive patients enrolled in the DISCOVER study from UK and Republic of Ireland undergoing major gastrointestinal and liver surgery between October and December 2014. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore associations between critical care admission (planned and unplanned) and mortality, and inter-centre variation in critical care admission after emergency laparotomy. RESULTS: Of 4529 patients included, 37.8% (n=1713) underwent planned critical care admissions from theatre. Some 3.1% (n=86/2816) admitted to ward-level care subsequently underwent unplanned critical care admission. Overall 30-day mortality was 2.9% (n=133/4519), and the risk-adjusted association between 30-day mortality and critical care admission was higher in unplanned [odds ratio (OR): 8.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.51-19.97) than planned admissions (OR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.43-3.85). Some 26.7% of patients (n=1210/4529) underwent emergency laparotomies. After adjustment, 49.3% (95% CI: 46.8-51.9%, P<0.001) were predicted to have planned critical care admissions, with 7% (n=10/145) of centres outside the 95% CI. CONCLUSIONS: After risk adjustment, no 30-day survival benefit was identified for either planned or unplanned postoperative admissions to critical care within this cohort. This likely represents appropriate admission of the highest-risk patients. Planned admissions in selected, intermediate-risk patients may present a strategy to mitigate the risk of unplanned admission. Substantial inter-centre variation exists in planned critical care admissions after emergency laparotomies.
Lymph node yield as a surrogate marker for tumour biology and prognosis in colon cancer
Abstract Background We interrogated two large national databases to explore the underlying mechanisms and institutional effects of the known association of enhanced survival with a higher lymph node yield (LNY) in non-metastatic colon cancer. Method Clinical and pathological data for stage I-III colon adenocarcinomas were extracted from the CORECT-R (England, 2010–2020) and SEER database (USA, 2000–2020). A lymph node (LN) cut-off for the lack of clinically significant increase in nodal positivity was identified. A multivariable Cox-regression model was developed to study the effect of LNY on overall survival. Furthermore, institutional variations in LNY and their impact on survival were explored. Results Patients were retrospectively included from the CORECT-R (n = 84,116) and SEER (n = 287,974) databases. No significant increase in nodal positivity was noted after a LN cut-off of 9. However, improved survival was noted in node-negative and node-positive cancers beyond this cut-off. A 1% risk-reduction concerning overall survival was reported for every node counted. We identified ten outlying institutions across England with an observed LNY greater or less than the expected, with no impact on overall survival. Discussions We advocate incorporating LNY into patient and clinician discussions as a surrogate marker of tumour biology and prognosis rather than using LNY as a quality indicator.
Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
INTRODUCTION: Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. INCLUSION CRITERIA: children <18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p<0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p<0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p<0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer.
The cingulum: anatomy, connectivity and what goes beyond
Abstract For over half a century, the cingulum has been the subject of neuroanatomical and therapeutic investigations owing to its wide range of functions and involvement in various neurological and psychiatric diseases. Recent clinical studies investigating neurosurgical techniques targeting the cingulum, like deep brain stimulation of the anterior cingulate cortex (DBS-ACC) and cingulotomy, have further boosted interests in this central ‘hub’ as a target for chronic intractable pain. Proper targeting within the cingulum is essential to achieve sufficient pain relief. Despite the cingulum being the center of research for over a century, its structural and functional organization remain a subject to debate, consequently complicating neurosurgical targeting of this area. This study aims to review anatomical and connectivity data of the cingulum from a clinical perspective in order to improve understanding of its role in pain. For the current study, a systematic literature search was performed to assess the anatomy, and functional and structural connectivity of the cingulate bundle and -cortex. These outcomes focus on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Positron Emission Tomography (PET) data. Articles were searched within the PubMed database and additional articles were found manually through reviews or references cited within the articles. After exclusion, 70 articles remained included in this analysis, with 50, 29 and 10 studies describing human, monkey and rat subjects respectively. Outcomes of this analysis show the presence of various anatomical models, each describing other subdivisions within the cingulum. Moreover, connectivity data suggest that the cingulate bundle consists of three distinct fibre projections, including the thalamocortical, cingulate gyrus and anterior frontal and posterior parietal projections. Further, the cingulum is responsible for a variety of functions involved in chronic pain, like sensory processing, memory, spatial functioning, reward, cognition, emotion, visceromotor and endocrine control. Based on the current outcomes, it can be concluded that the cingulum is a central ‘hub’ for pain processing, because it is a melting pot for memory, cognition and affect that are involved in the complex phenomenon of pain experience, memory, spatial functioning, reward, cognition, emotion, visceromotor and endocrine control. Variability in anatomical and connectivity models complicate proper and standardized neurosurgical targeting, consequently leading to clinicians often being reluctant on stimulation and/or lesioning of the cingulum. Hence, future research should be dedicated to the standardization of these models, to allow for optimal targeting and management of patients with chronic intractable pain.
Use of oxygen-loaded nanobubbles to improve tissue oxygenation: Bone-relevant mechanisms of action and effects on osteoclast differentiation.
Gas-loaded nanobubbles have potential as a method of oxygen delivery to increase tumour oxygenation and therapeutically alleviate tumour hypoxia. However, the mechanism(s) whereby oxygen-loaded nanobubbles increase tumour oxygenation are unknown; with their calculated oxygen-carrying capacity being insufficient to explain this effect. Intra-tumoural hypoxia is a prime therapeutic target, at least partly due to hypoxia-dependent stimulation of the formation and function of bone-resorbing osteoclasts which establish metastatic cells in bone. This study aims to investigate potential mechanism(s) of oxygen delivery and in particular the possible use of oxygen-loaded nanobubbles in preventing bone metastasis via effects on osteoclasts. Lecithin-based nanobubbles preferentially interacted with phagocytic cells (monocytes, osteoclasts) via a combination of lipid transfer, clathrin-dependent endocytosis and phagocytosis. This interaction caused general suppression of osteoclast differentiation via inhibition of cell fusion. Additionally, repeat exposure to oxygen-loaded nanobubbles inhibited osteoclast formation to a greater extent than nitrogen-loaded nanobubbles. This gas-dependent effect was driven by differential effects on the fusion of mononuclear precursor cells to form pre-osteoclasts, partly due to elevated potentiation of RANKL-induced ROS by nitrogen-loaded nanobubbles. Our findings suggest that oxygen-loaded nanobubbles could represent a promising therapeutic strategy for cancer therapy; reducing osteoclast formation and therefore bone metastasis via preferential interaction with monocytes/macrophages within the tumour and bone microenvironment, in addition to known effects of directly improving tumour oxygenation.
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric patients with cancer in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries: protocol for a multicentre, international, observational cohort study.
INTRODUCTION: Childhood cancers are a leading cause of non-communicable disease deaths for children around the world. The COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted on global children's cancer services, which can have consequences for childhood cancer outcomes. The Global Health Research Group on Children's Non-Communicable Diseases is currently undertaking the first international cohort study to determine the variation in paediatric cancer management during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the short-term to medium-term impacts on childhood cancer outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre, international cohort study that will use routinely collected hospital data in a deidentified and anonymised form. Patients will be recruited consecutively into the study, with a 12-month follow-up period. Patients will be included if they are below the age of 18 years and undergoing anticancer treatment for the following cancers: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, Burkitt lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms tumour, sarcoma, retinoblastoma, gliomas, medulloblastomas and neuroblastomas. Patients must be newly presented or must be undergoing active anticancer treatment from 12 March 2020 to 12 December 2020. The primary objective of the study was to determine all-cause mortality rates of 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. This study will examine the factors that influenced these outcomes. χ2 analysis will be used to compare mortality between low-income and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression analysis will be undertaken to identify patient-level and hospital-level factors affecting outcomes with adjustment for confounding factors. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: At the host centre, this study was deemed to be exempt from ethical committee approval due to the use of anonymised registry data. At other centres, participating collaborators have gained local approvals in accordance with their institutional ethical regulations. Collaborators will be encouraged to present the results locally, nationally and internationally. The results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.
Exploring the levels of variation, inequality and use of physical activity intervention referrals in England primary care from 2017-2020: a retrospective cohort study.
OBJECTIVES: In this study, we explore the use of physical activity intervention referrals in primary care in England and compare their use with the rate of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in England from 2017 to 2020. We also explore variation and inequalities in referrals to these interventions in England across the study period. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: England primary care via the Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre. PARTICIPANTS: The Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre, a sentinel network across England covering a population of over 15 000 000 registered patients, was used for data analyses covering the 2017-2020 financial years and including patients with long-term conditions indicating CVD risk factors. OUTCOME MEASURES: An existing ontology of primary care codes was used to capture physical activity interventions and a new ontology was designed to cover long-term conditions indicating CVD risk factors. Single factor analysis of variance, paired samples t-test and two-tailed, one proportion z-tests were used to determine the significance of our findings. RESULTS: We observed statistically significant variation in physical activity intervention referrals for people with CVD risk factors from different ethnic groups and age groups across different regions of England as well as a marked decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, a significant difference was not seen for different socioeconomic groups or sexes. Across all attributes and time periods (with the exception of the 18-39 group, 2017-2019), we observed a statistically significant underuse of physical activity intervention referrals. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identified statistically significant variation and underuse of physical activity referrals in primary care in England for individuals at risk of CVD for different population subgroups, especially different ethnicities and age groups, across different regions of England and across time, with the COVID-19 pandemic exerting a significant negative impact on referral rates.
Characterisation of progenitor cells in human atherosclerotic vessels.
Recent data from animal models has demonstrated that both endothelial and smooth muscle progenitor cells contribute to the development of atherosclerosis. However, no data exists concerning the presence of progenitor cells in human atherosclerotic vessels. In the present study, a range of normal and atherosclerotic human arteries were collected from patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. Segments of internal mammary artery (normal controls), and segments of proximal ascending aorta with visible fatty streak were analysed. Immunofluorescence was used to detect a panel of progenitor cell markers. A small number of progenitor cells were identified within neointimal lesions and the adventitia with variable expression of CD34, stem cell antigen (Sca-1), c-kit and VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR2) markers, but no CD133 expression. On average there was a two- to three-fold increase in progenitor cell number in the adventitia of atherosclerotic vessels compared with normal controls, with a significant difference (p<0.05) in the frequency of cells expressing VEGFR2. Thus, we have provided the first evidence that vascular progenitor cells exist within atherosclerotic lesions, and identified an increased number of progenitor cells in the adventitia of human atherosclerotic vessels. These cells might be a source for smooth muscle cells (SMCs), macrophages and endothelial cells (ECs) that form atherosclerotic lesions.
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FINDINGS: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. INTERPRETATION: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.